National Consultancy Services on conducting Tracer Study in Kenya

## 1.Introduction and Purpose

The forced displacement crisis has increased in scale and complexity in recent years. According to UNHCR, there were about 117.3 million forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) in 2025, of whom about 39 million refugees and asylum-seekers.1 The impact of forced displacement is substantial both among those in displacement and hosting communities.

In this context, the Government of the Netherlands in 2019 launched the PROSPECTS Partnership Programme, built on the combined strengths, experience and values of specific development and humanitarian organizations. The partners include the Government of the Netherlands, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the ILO, UNHCR, UNICEF and the World Bank. The programme aims to transform the way governments and other stakeholders respond to forced displacement crises, in particular by enhancing the enabling environment for socio-economic inclusion of forcibly displaced persons; improving access to education and child protection for vulnerable children on the move; and strengthening the resilience of host communities through inclusive socio-economic development that also benefits displaced populations.

Currently in its second phase, the programme is grounded in results-based and country-led approaches in MENA (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon) and the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Sudan). It seeks to accelerate sustainable solutions through evidence-based and context-specific interventions, including testing innovative operational solutions and improving the availability, collection and use of data and evidence. ILO’s vision within the programme is to strengthen decent work in displacement-affected countries to support inclusive socio-economic outcomes for host communities and forcibly displaced populations.

In Kenya, the PROSPECTS Programme is implemented primarily in Garissa and Turkana Counties, the country's two largest refugee-hosting counties. The programme works closely with county governments, relevant public institutions, employers' and workers' organizations, private sector actors, development partners, and other key stakeholders. At the national level, PROSPECTS collaborates with line ministries, government agencies, social partners, and development partners to promote policies and interventions that foster the socio-economic inclusion, self-reliance, and resilience of refugees and host communities.

According to UNHCR data as of 31 May 2026, Kenya hosted 852,3882 refugees and asylum seekers. Of these, 417,767 (49%) resided in Dadaab, Garissa County, while 316,460 (37%) lived in Kakuma Refugee Camp and Kalobeyei Integrated Settlement in Turkana County. The remaining 118,161 individuals (14%) resided in urban areas, primarily Nairobi. Garissa and Turkana are arid and semi-arid counties where livelihoods are predominantly pastoralist and communities face recurrent droughts, climate-related shocks, limited economic opportunities, and persistent development challenges. These vulnerabilities affect both refugee and host populations and underscore the need for integrated and sustainable approaches to economic and social inclusion.

Within this context, the PROSPECTS Programme seeks to strengthen the resilience, self-reliance, and socio-economic well-being of refugees and host communities through integrated interventions across four pillars, namely: Education and Learning/ skills development, Economic Inclusion, Protection and Social Protection, and Critical Infrastructure. At the ILO, the programme promotes market-relevant skills development, entrepreneurship and enterprise development, improved access to livelihoods and employment opportunities, and stronger labour market systems that support inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Through these interventions, PROSPECTS contributes to expanding pathways to decent work, enhancing productivity and incomes, and supporting the long-term socio-economic inclusion of refugees and host communities in line with national development priorities and the Global Compact on Refugees.

## 2.Scope of work

PROSPECTS designed a tracer study methodology to assess the impacts of the program on its beneficiaries. The programme team is now looking to hire a service provider to implement this tracer methodology in Kenya.
This tracer, which for the first round will serve as a baseline to which data from subsequent rounds can be compared with, will focus on beneficiaries that have just started to receive support from ILO PROSPECTS. The consultancy firm will work closely with the programme team to collect data for outcome-level indicators and responding to specific learning questions. These indicators revolve around the employment or self-employment situation, decent work conditions, access to financial services, self-reliance and social cohesion.

The tracer study will require the sampling of a minimum of 616 valid surveys collected, across the various PROSPECTS intervention components. Surveys are preferred to be conducted over the phone whenever feasible and when possible, for cost efficiency. However, if practical challenges, quality control concerns, cultural sensitivities, or geographic limitations arise, in-person surveys will need to be employed. It is expected that all surveys are collected by experienced and well-trained enumerators using electronic data collection.
The tracer survey will be accompanied by 10-12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) in-person with ILO PROSPECTS beneficiaries, based on purposive sampling for the different categories (e.g., type of intervention received, gender, host community versus forcibly displaced persons, etc.). These lines of enquiry shall provide valuable information the ILO can use for comparison in the future measurements about the changes to those that have been exposed to the project interventions.

Depending on performance and funding availability, the selected service provider may be requested to support a second round of data collection using a comparable methodology and sampling approach. Any such follow-on assignment would be subject to a separate decision by the ILO and is not committed under this concept note.
It is important to note that the service provider will be responsible for implementing the survey and focus group discussions, collecting both the quantitative and qualitative data. The data analysis and report writing, however, will be carried out by another consultant who will perform this task for all PROSPECTS countries where the tracer is performed, with a view to standardize the data analysis methodology and presentation of findings across all countries.

## 3.Detailed tasks

The consultancy firm shall conduct a targeted desk review of relevant project-related documentation to understand the project design, reported achievements and challenges. Additionally, the consultancy firm will need to become well acquainted with the global PROSPECTS tracer methodological report detailing all aspects of the tracer study. The consultancy firm will then design samples as discussed above for the two data collection tools (tracer survey and FGDs). The data collection tools have already been designed by the ILO PROSPECTS team but may have to be slightly adjusted with the support of the PROSPECTS M&E team to account better for the specific programme activities and expected results in Kenya. The consultancy firm will be expected to translate the follow-up survey / questionnaires into local languages (e.g., Swahili) and test them. The consultancy firm shall use appropriate mobile data collection applications (such as ONA or Kobo) to support design (excel forms of surveys in English will already be developed) and conduct surveys with the selected beneficiaries.

The consultancy firm will be required to put in place data quality measures to ensure the completeness, accuracy, and reliability of all the quantitative and qualitative data collected. The consultancy firm will be required