Request for Proposal- conduct an Economic Benefits Analysis of Regenerative Farming transition among Smallholder Farmers in Kirinyaga County, Kenya

**ABOUT AGA KHAN FOUNDATION (AKF)** The Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), established by His Highness the Aga Khan in Switzerland in 1967, is an agency of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN). In Kenya, since 1974, AKF works with partners to improve the quality of life by promoting and developing innovative solutions to development challenges. AKF responds to local priorities by developing and implementing effective programming, measuring, and documenting results, and sharing its lessons with governments, donors, and development actors to influence policy and practice. **PROGRAMME OVERVIEW** The Aga Khan Foundation is implementing MAENDELEO, a Regenerative Farming Initiative in Kirinyaga County. aimed at improving smallholder farmers livelihoods. The initiative focuses on capacity strengthening of farmers in regenerative farming practices through farmer field schools and on-farm support. The overall principle is to co-develop with smallholder farmers simple solutions (aka SIIIMs: Small Integrated Innovative & Impactful Modules), that are accessible to farmers easy to adopt regenerative practices. The overall goal is to strengthen climate-resilient livelihoods, sustainable food systems, and improved nutrition among smallholder farming households through regenerative agriculture in target counties in Kenya. The specific objectives of the programme includes: 1. Objective 1: Increase smallholder farmers productivity, income, and autonomy 2. Objective 2: Reduce smallholder farmers operating costs and labour 3. Objective 3: Strengthen smallholder farmers socioeconomic and climate resilience 4. Objective 4: Improve smallholder farmer household food security and nutrition 5. Objective 5: Restore farm natural capital (soil, water, air, biodiversity) **PURPOSE OF THE CONSULTANCY** The purpose of this consultancy is to assess and quantify the economic benefits, costs, returns, and livelihood impacts associated with the adoption of regenerative farming practices promoted under the initiative in Kirinyaga County. The study will generate robust evidence on the economic viability and sustainability of regenerative agriculture interventions and provide actionable recommendations for programme improvement, scaling, investment prioritization, influence policy and practice. Specifically, the Foundation intends to assess whether adoption of regenerative farming practices contributes to improved farm productivity, reduced production costs, increased profitability, improved household incomes, enhanced resilience to climate variability, and broader socio-economic benefits for farming households and communities. To support evidence-based programming and scaling of regenerative agriculture approaches, the Foundation seeks to engage a qualified consultant or consulting firm to undertake a comprehensive Economic Benefits Analysis of the initiative among target farmers in Kirinyaga County. **OBJECTIVES OF THE CONSULTANCY** **Overall objective of the consultancy** To conduct a comprehensive economic benefits analysis of the regenerative farming initiative among target farmers in Kirinyaga County. The evaluation will adopt the before and after evaluation design where the adopting farmers will be required to recall the pre-adoption status and compared with non-participating farmers. ## **Specific objectives of the consultancy.** The consultant shall: 1. Assess the extent and level of adoption of regenerative farming practices among participating farmers. 2. Analyze changes in: 1. Agricultural productivity and yields of the main crops and horticulture produce being grown; 2. Farm input costs with breakup in fertilizer, pesticide, seed and labor costs 3. Household agricultural net income; 4. Farm profitability and gross margins; 5. Household food security and dietary diversity; 6. Climate resilience and risk reduction. 3. Assess farmers’ perceptions of economic gains, risks, barriers, and incentives associated with regenerative farming. 4. Identify gender, youth, and socio-economic dimensions influencing economic outcomes and adoption patterns. 5. Generate lessons, recommendations, and strategic insights for scaling regenerative agriculture programming in Kenya. **SCOPE OF WORK** The consultancy shall cover target farmers participating and non-target farmers in the regenerative farming initiative within selected wards/communities in Kirinyaga County. The consultant will be expected to: - Review programme documents, data, training materials, monitoring reports, and existing assessments; - Design an appropriate analytical framework and methodology; - Undertake quantitative and qualitative data collection; - Conduct household economic analysis; - Analyse production, profitability, labour, and market linkages - Assess environmental-economic linkages where relevant; - Produce high-quality analytical report **KEY EVALUATION QUESTIONS** The analysis should respond to the following indicative questions: 1. Farm location: 2. Total farm size and whether owned or rented 3. Household size / number of people live and depend on the farm. 4. Five main crops of the farm and current hectarage 5. Type and number of livestock (cattle, goats, sheep, poultry, bees, fish, etc) 6. When the farmer started the regenerative transition in their farm (month, year). 7. Which factors have convinced the farmer to adopt regenerative farming. 8. What regenerative farming practices the farmer has adopted. 9. Whether the farmer was using synthetic chemical fertilizers before the MAENDELEO Initiative. 10. Whether the farmer was using synthetic chemical pesticides before the MAENDELEO Initiative. 11. Whether farmer is still using synthetic chemical fertilizers. 12. Whether farmer is still using synthetic chemical pesticides. 13. Whether the farmer is considering going back to synthetic chemical inputs. 14. Ranking in order of importance at least any five main benefits experienced from the transition to regenerative farming. 15. Key challenges faced in adopting regenerative farming. **METHODOLOGY** The consultant is expected to propose a rigorous mixed-methods approach, including but not limited to: Desk review, Household surveys, Key informant interviews, Focus group discussions, cost-benefit analysis, gross margin analysis, enterprise budgeting, comparative analysis, case studies, and farmer success stories. The methodology should incorporate: 1. Gender-sensitive and inclusive approaches; 2. Participatory methods; 3. Appropriate sampling strategies; 4. Ethical data collection standards; 5. Data quality assurance mechanisms. The consultant should clearly indicate: 1. Sample size determination 2. Sampling procedures; 3. Analytical tools and software; 4. Limitations and mitigation measures. **EXPECTED DELIVERABLES** The consultant shall provide the following deliverables within the specified timelines: **No Deliverable Description Timeline** 1 Inception Report Detailed methodology, work plan, sampling framework, tools, and 1 week analytical approach 2 Data Collection Tools Survey questionnaires, interview guides, and data collection protocols 2 weeks 3 Draft Report Preliminary findings, analysis, and recommendations 6 weeks 4 Validation Workshop Presentation of findings to stakeholders 7 weeks 5 Final Report with power Revised final report incorporating stakeholder feedback 8 weeks point presentation 6\. Clean Dataset and Raw and cleaned data, codebooks, analytical models Upon completion Analysis Files **EXPECTED CONTENTS OF THE FINAL REPORT** The structure of the final report should include: 1. Executive summary 2. Introduction and background 3. Design and Methodology - Study objectives - Study sample and sample determination. - Data collection procedures - Data Analysis procedures 4. Findings - Socio-economic profile of farmers - Adoption of regenerative farming practices - Economic and livelihood analysis - Gender and inclusion analysis - Resilience and sustainability outcomes 5. Summary of key findings and lessons lear

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